Anemic labor market, the U.S. is not an obstacle to increasing world inflation

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: Yesterday, the ECB and the Bank of England announced its decision on rates, and also commented on further trends in the economy and inflation. We received a similar assessment of economic trends: the worst is over, the economy is gradually recovering, although the risks remain high. Inflation, Europeans and Americans said absolutely different.

Fed expected to remain suppressed inflationary pressure in the medium term. The main argument in favor high unemployment and sluggish consumer spending. ECB and the Bank of England said that in the near future price growth will accelerate, approaching the target levels. The reasons indicated rising fuel prices, as well as their comparison with the level of last year. Since the second decade of October, we have a rise in oil prices year to year, rather than collapse, as it was earlier.

Some of them are necessarily wrong. Bernanke makes it clear that oil prices are nothing more than a consequence of cycles of consumer activities of Americans, and therefore will fall, as the anemic job market in the United States would not increase consumption.

European monetary officials want to warn of a somewhat different developments. We have a growing demand for raw materials because of the unfolding growth of Asia. These countries are very energy inefficient, they consume a lot of fuel, but also compensate for cheap labor. In addition, adjustments to inventory levels also supports expectations for growth in the economies of the eurozone. On the restoration of places and the Bank of England, which unexpectedly changed the tone of statements on a more optimistic, citing the improvement in the sentiment index and business activity.

Dilemma may be the gold market. It is growing rapidly with the onset of autumn, referring to the week mark in 1097.5 per ounce. This is a clear signal that market participants are trying to protect their cash reserves from the risks of the burst of inflation. As the world's largest Central Bank - the Federal Reserve - saw no such threat, the money will be "cheap" gold impressive rise and the dollar - to fall.

Speculators recorded part of the profits from the rally preceding months, and now, apparently, are ready to engage the new peaks. Pair EUR / USD is now trading near 1.4880. Local maximum of 1.5060 can be taken in the week that is likely to happen. Gold will try the strength of the mark in 1100 dollars, oil - a local maximum of 82 dollars, and the dollar / ruble will remain near 28,80-29,0.